A bivariate pareto model for drought   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Saralees Nadarajah 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):811-822

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.  相似文献   

近断层脉冲型地震动重要参数的识别方法     

李明  谢礼立  翟长海 《世界地震工程》2009,25(4)

在拟合或合成近断层脉冲型地震动的研究中,速度等效脉冲中的参数需要依据实际地震动确定,因此,如何从地震动中识别这些参数就成为一个需要解决的问题.详细分析了已有脉冲周期和脉冲速度峰值的识别方法,分析结果表明这些方法均具有局限性,尤其是对于不规则地震动.提出了基于平滑后的地震动识别脉冲周期和脉冲速度峰值的方法,并验证了这种识别方法的有效性.结果表明: 提出的脉冲周期和脉冲速度峰值识别方法可以克服以往方法的局限性,可以实现脉冲周期和脉冲速度峰值识别的程序化.  相似文献   

The relationship between the growth process of the ferromanganese crusts in the pacific seamount and Cenozoic ocean evolvement     

Xuan Ding  LianFeng Gao  NianQiao Fang  WenJun Qu  Jian Liu  JiangShan Li 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(8):1091-1103

Base on the Os isotope stratigraphy together with the empirical growth rate models using Co concentrations, the growth ages of the ferromanganese crusts MHD79 and MP3D10 distributed in the seamount of Pacific are confirmed. Through the contrast and research on the previous achievements including ODP Leg 144 and the crusts CD29-2, N5E-06 and N1–15 of the seamount of the Central Pacific, the uniform five growth and growth hiatus periods of them are found, and closely related to the Cenozoic ocean evolvement process. In the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum (PCIM), the rise of the global ocean productivity promoted the growth of the seamount crust; the first growth hiatus (I) of the ferromanganese crust finished. In the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), though the vertical exchange of seawater was weakened, the strong terrestrial chemical weathering led to the input of a great amount of the terrigenous nutrients, which made the bioproductivity rise, so there were no crust hiatuses. During 52–50 Ma, the Early Eocene Optimum Climate (EECO), the two poles were warm, the latitudinal temperature gradient was small, the wind-driven sea circulation and upwelling activity were weak, the terrestrial weathering was also weakened, the open ocean bioproductivity decreased, and the ferromanganese crust had growth hiatus again (II). From early Middle Eocene-Late Eocene, Oligocene, it was a long-term gradually cooling process, the strengthening of the sea circulation and upwelling led to a rise of bioproductivity, and increase of the content of the hydrogenous element Fe, Mn and Co and the biogenous element Cu, Zn, so that was the most favorable stage for the growth of ferromanganese crust (growth periods III and IV) in the studied area. The hiatus III corresponded with the Eocene- Oligocene boundary, is inferred to relate with the global climate transformation, celestial body impact event in the Eocene-Oligocene transition. From the early to the middle Miocene, a large-scale growth hiatus (hiatus period IV) of the ferromanganese crust in the studied area is inferred to relate with temporary warm up climate and ephemeral withdrawal of Antarctic bottom water in the early Miocene. After that, the Antarctic ice sheets extended, the bottom water circumfluence strengthened, the ocean fertility increased, and the once interrupted crust continued to grow in the late Miocene (growth period V). Supported by China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association “10th Five Year” Topic (Grant No. DY105-01-04-14)  相似文献   

浑太流域降水极值的统计分布特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

胡乃发  金昌杰  关德新  王安志  吴家兵  袁凤辉 《高原气象》2012,31(4):1166-1172

基于浑太流域1966-2006年73个雨量站的日降水资料,建立了逐站年最大日降水量(AnnualMaximum,AM)序列和汛期4-9月日降水量<1.27mm.d-1的最长持续干旱天数(Munger Index,MI)序列,并对其时空分布规律进行了分析。采用广义极值(General Extreme Value,GEV)分布、广义帕雷托(General Pareto,GP)分布、韦布尔(Weibull,WB)分布、约翰逊SB(Jonhson SB,J-SB)分布、Burr分布和对数逻辑(Log-Logistic,L-LG)分布等6种极值分布函数对AM和MI序列进行了逐站分布拟合,结果表明,广泛应用的GEV分布整体拟合程度最好,有50个测站的KS检验统计量Dn<0.09,而未曾推广使用的Burr分布的拟合效果也非常好,有36个测站Dn<0.09。用GEV分布对50年一遇的AM和MI进行了估算,发现流域中心地区极端强降水和极端干旱的程度较高,分别为>208mm.d-1和>47d。  相似文献   

不同平均时间对LOPEX10资料涡动相关湍流通量计算结果影响的探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吕少宁  文军  张宇  王少影  张堂堂  田辉  刘蓉 《高原气象》2012,31(6):1530-1538

通过处理涡动相关系统观测的近地层湍流脉动量可以获取地—气间感热和潜热通量,然而选择不同平均时间对通量计算的结果有较大影响。采用黄土高原陆面过程野外观测试验(LOPEX10)期间获得的涡动相关系统观测资料,分析了不同平均时间对湍流通量计算的影响,并采用雷诺平均和分解方法推导了平均时间引起的通量差值的数学表达式(Flux Compensation,FC)。结果表明:(1)FC公式可以说明采用不同平均时间数据之间的关系,也可以直接计算低频涡旋对湍流通量的贡献。FC公式计算的结果与直接计算的不同平均时间通量计算之差的相关系数在0.95以上,并可以确定计算湍流通量的最佳平均时间。(2)通过采用Ogive函数确定了计算LOPEX10期间通量的最佳平均时间长度为30min,印证了利用雷诺平均和分解方法计算湍流通量补偿的准确性。(3)通过进一步的数学变换,证明了平均时间对湍流通量计算的影响直接与湍流低频变化相关,FC公式可以用来确定涡动相关观测数据的最佳平均时间,并且在获得较高时间分辨率的湍流通量数据的同时,补偿因平均时间过短而遗漏的低频信息。  相似文献   

北京市强降雨分区及重现期研究   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

马京津  李书严  王冀 《气象》2012,38(5):569-576

利用北京观象台1841—2008年年降水量资料及近50年北京市20个气象站和82个雨量站资料分析了北京地区降水量的时间和空间变化规律,对北京地区的降雨进行分区研究,并结合观象台站逐分钟降雨资料应用广义偏态分布（GPD）方法分析了北京地区不同历时降雨量重现期。结果表明：近168年来,北京地区有两个多雨时段和两个少雨时段,目前北京处于20世纪90年代至今的少雨时段内。70至80年代,北京地区强降雨主要为全市区域性降雨,90年代之后北京的短历时强降雨呈现出局地性的特征,降水分布不均,强降水中心大致成东北一西南向带状分布。根据北京市降雨EOF分析,将北京市划分为4个降雨分区,分别是山后区、城市中心区、东北部山区和东南部平原区。其中城区代表站观象台站多个历时不同重现期降雨量分析结果经过与现行排水规范对比表明,重现期模拟结果可靠。  相似文献   

陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘璐  马杰 《气象》2012,38(8):1012-1016

选取陕西苹果30个生产基地县中果业发展水平具有代表性的12个台站,近50年(1961—2009年)9月中旬至10月上旬苹果成熟期连续3天及以上降水日数和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其连阴雨指数。将连阴雨指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱5个等级,并用典型K阶自回归AR(K)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明连阴雨指数能够较客观地反映基地县的连阴雨强度,且典型K阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在83%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。  相似文献   

中国近50年气温变化准3年周期的普遍性及气温未来的可能变化趋势   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

王澄海  李健  许晓光 《高原气象》2012,31(1):126-136

利用全国98个测站的年和冬季气温资料,采用Marr小波分析方法,分析了近50年(1961—2009年)中国8个气候区的年和冬季气温变化,研究了中国气温变化的周期性,并对未来20年(2010—2029年)气温的可能变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,我国8个气候区气温的年际变化以高频变化为主,普遍存在着准3～4年周期变化,尤其是冬季气温的准3年周期变化显著,而且这种周期变化具有相对的稳定性。而年气温的周期特征存在显著的南北差异。周期叠加外推的结果表明,未来20年,中国将继续保持增暖趋势,北方地区和青藏高原的升温要大于除西南地区外的南方地区。如果按照线性趋势升温,2010-2029年气温上升幅度不会超过1℃。  相似文献   

“后地段时代”我国房地产开发     

程诚 《地域研究与开发》2012,31(3):64-67

由于社会经济发展和城市建设深化,房地产开发和城市建设的影响因子日益多元化,使得以地段为标志的区位因素在房地产开发和城市发展建设中的地位正趋于弱化,"唯地段论"日益面临挑战。在批评"唯地段论"的基础上,提出了"后地段时代"概念,分析了"后地段时代"房地产区位弱化的成因,探讨了"后地段时代"我国房地产开发受到的影响及调整思路。  相似文献   

历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征(英文)   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘毅  杨宇  李莉 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(6):963-976

Based on historical documents and records this paper analyzes the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters that took place in the history of China. The findings show that occurrences of different types of disasters varied and spatial pattern at provincial level are significantly different as well. The results also indicate that there is a strong relationship between type of disasters and spatial distribution and that the spatial pattern of losses was not the same as that of the frequency. The reasons are: (1) the hazard-formative environments which, to a large extent, determine the spatial pattern of the disasters are significantly different; (2) the losses caused by natural disasters were closely related to the concentration of economy and population. Number of deaths was usually large in areas where agriculture, culture and business were relatively developed. The spatial pattern of disaster losses is an evitable result of uneven economic development in the history of China.  相似文献